Investor's Log

Cognizant: 7.5x FCF, margin expansion, activist sway. Nah, I still don't like it, says Mr. Market

Why the market's pessimism on Cognizant contradicts its own earnings call and a reverse-DCF analysis

Jul 1 • I, Bayes

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June 2026

3 core ideas and 5 subtle insights from Value Investing: From Graham to Buffett and Beyond

The book delivers what it promises: a comprehensive and practical review of value investing.

Jun 25 • I, Bayes

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An update on Lululemon Athletica ($LULU) after the Q1 2026 report and new guidance

A reverse-DCF read: the market is extrapolating one soft year into ten.

Jun 9 • I, Bayes

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May 2026

Why I bought Lululemon Athletica ($LULU) at $125

Reverse-DCF shows the market is pricing in a permanent margin reset below the worst year in LULU's history. I'd take that bet.

May 13 • I, Bayes

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April 2026

Emerging markets ETFs: outperformance starts with a tilt

A study of EM ETF strategies across 7 market regimes

Apr 7 • I, Bayes

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March 2026

Mercado Libre reverse DCF: pricing a strong but fragile fintech edge

Let's talk numbers, not vibes

Mar 3 • I, Bayes

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February 2026

The case for European dividend ETFs

Dividends aren't just for grandmas

Feb 25 • I, Bayes

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December 2025

Three blind spots in the passive investing playbook

The hidden cost of zero tracking error, the "rising tide" bias, and the flaws of naive diversification

Dec 2, 2025 • I, Bayes

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November 2025

Is META undervalued after the dip?

3-scenario analysis through expectations investing lens

Nov 12, 2025 • I, Bayes

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Stock spin-off investing: does it still work today?

A backtest of 2023 spin-offs

Nov 4, 2025 • I, Bayes

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October 2025

Expectations Investing: a fundamental book on stock valuation

Review & summary

Oct 22, 2025 • I, Bayes

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ChatGPT for stock-picking: could simple AI screening improve a portfolio?

A quick backtest + thoughts about AI’s place in investment research

Oct 16, 2025 • I, Bayes

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